James 315
Tactical Enterprise Group LTD
The Imperial Order
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Posted - 2006.07.28 16:02:00 -
[1]
It's a shame that all of the drama has been overshadowing what promises to be a very interesting fight, one which many of us have been looking forward to seeing. We've heard both sides of the drama enough, I think. In this post I would like to discuss how an alliance is actually destroyed in Eve, and whether/how BoB can really destroy GoonSwarm.
Some say that alliances are destroyed when one side makes people from the other side quit the game, or by doing enough economic damage to bankrupt them. I disagree. I think alliances are destroyed when corps take advantage of the fact that they can easily switch to another alliance. When one alliance dominates the battles, destroys enough POS's, and camps enough to convince the other side's corps that they are a member of a "losing" alliance, and that the game would be more fun if they switched to an alliance that can defend itself...the corps will leave and the alliance dissolves.
In my theory, an alliance won't die even if a lot of damage is done to it, so long as the battles are not one-sided enough to convince corps they're better off switching alliances altogether.
Killing a corp would be similar, convincing members to switch corps, but since corps can simply take refuge in the big alliances, destroying a corp can be nearly impossible.
This brings us to BoB versus GS. GoonSwarm is different from other alliances, because it is basically just one huge corp. Yes, there are non-Goon corps in GS, but their departure would be irrelevant. The traditional alliance dynamic doesn't apply, so destroying GS would be like trying to destroy a corp.
But supposing GS got annihilated on the battlefield, would it take refuge in a larger alliance? I think this is doubtful (although the power dynamics of GoonFleet joining ASCN would be very interesting).
GS is also distinct from a corp. As I said, to destroy a corp you must convince its members they would have more fun in a different corp. But are Goons from SomethingAwful really going to think they would have more fun elsewhere? They live inside of their own little world, and for many of the Goons, the only reason they came to Eve is to play with the other Goons. Under the normal rules for destroying a corp or alliance, then, it would be extremely difficult to dismantle GoonSwarm.
One possibility may be a split in GS. It is a large alliance and has a variety of different kinds of people, even if the image of hyperactive, manic bees predominates. Is it possible that a series of humiliating GS defeats would induce members of GS to split, following someone other than Remedial? We know there are a lot of Goons who dislike Remedial, but for the most part it seems Goons don't care who leads them so long as they get to fight alongside their Goon bretheren.
Unlike an "alliance" in real life, an alliance in Eve cannot be physically forced to dismantle; you must persuade the member corps to do it. Thus wars are largely psychological, which is why many alliances find it useful to use forum propaganda. I find it difficult to believe GS could be persuaded to split apart, although if a real alternative to Remedial shows up and gathers support, this is possible.
Otherwise, I think BoB can drive GS back into empire and claim victory. GS could move on to another part of the galaxy, farther from BoB's reach, and I doubt the vendetta would go as far as BoB hunting GS everywhere, making an overstretch of their resources and putting its territories at risk to other alliances. That's my prediction, at least. |